Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 1.998827 2.097357 2.202190 2.322777 2.458630 2.608149 2.786876
2025-07-20 1.927901 2.059138 2.204501 2.379589 2.587845 2.831933 3.146734
2025-07-27 1.851952 2.001025 2.170617 2.381495 2.642378 2.963237 3.403655
2025-08-03 1.793797 1.955918 2.144330 2.384823 2.692476 3.087442 3.662487
2025-08-10 1.715010 1.880352 2.075032 2.327623 2.657774 3.093879 3.755463
2025-08-17 1.667850 1.839344 2.044098 2.314513 2.676484 3.170430 3.957389
2025-08-24 1.627195 1.803673 2.016972 2.303180 2.694730 3.245673 4.166951
2025-08-31 1.591490 1.772104 1.992810 2.293258 2.712679 3.320356 4.386818
2025-09-07 1.569735 1.756574 1.987664 2.307369 2.764098 3.449020 4.725255
2025-09-14 1.518075 1.701487 1.929228 2.245970 2.701952 3.393802 4.710491
2025-09-21 1.491598 1.677355 1.909891 2.236903 2.715377 3.459878 4.944963
2025-09-28 1.454644 1.638684 1.870076 2.197425 2.680653 3.443146 5.005803
2025-10-05 1.444540 1.634911 1.877047 2.225132 2.751548 3.615367 5.532224
2025-10-12 1.444115 1.643359 1.900251 2.276706 2.863180 3.875007 6.384593
2025-10-19 1.425596 1.627395 1.889647 2.278331 2.894795 3.992277 6.929660
2025-10-26 1.408698 1.612959 1.880440 2.281264 2.928347 4.117784 7.579091
2025-11-02 1.373719 1.573636 1.835735 2.229165 2.866072 4.042777 7.515095
2025-11-09 1.354080 1.554291 1.818128 2.217163 2.871147 4.107406 8.001121
2025-11-16 1.335974 1.536519 1.802119 2.206785 2.878115 4.176845 8.564487
2025-11-23 1.319164 1.520062 1.787420 2.197698 2.886554 4.250608 9.221810
2025-11-30 1.310323 1.514044 1.787081 2.210529 2.934359 4.419880 10.575254
2025-12-07 1.279899 1.478179 1.743597 2.154466 2.854573 4.282237 10.056581
2025-12-14 1.265657 1.464070 1.730758 2.146155 2.861520 4.352134 10.908662